The Novel Frankenstein By Mary Shelley Essay - 1435 Words

The novel Frankenstein by Mary Shelley, is a story about how important having a family is to some, but also judging someone based on their appearance. Victor Frankenstein starts the novel by describing his childhood with his loving and supportive family. Family is very important to him because he did not have many friends growing up. While Frankenstein is away at school he starts to become very depressed and you see his attitude towards his family and his life change. Being away at school, he creates a â€Å"monster† by using different pieces of corpses and that becomes the only thing that matters to him until he sees how hideous it is. He immediately hates his creation just because of how he looks. Frankenstein begins to abandon everyone and thing in his life because of his obsession with the idea of glory and science, causing the novel to go from Romanticism to Gothic. The â€Å"monster† finds a family living in a cottage, by watching all winter he learns how a family should love and accept others. By seeing this, Frankenstein’s creations understand what was taken from him, and will do whatever he has to do to have a family of his own. The novel has a strong family influence throughout the entire book. Frankenstein’s parents have great appreciation for their family. â€Å"No human being could have passed a happier childhood than myself. My parents were possessed by the very spirit of kindness and indulgence.† (Shelley) His mother, Caroline was always trying to help others and gotShow MoreRelatedThe Novel Frankenstein By Mary Shelley983 Words   |  4 PagesThe novel Frankenstein, authored by Mary Shelley, begins with the introduction of explorer Robert Walton and his series of letters, to his sister Margaret Saville. Walton is the captain of a ship en route on a treacherous expedition to the North Pole. He composes a multitude of letters, particularly one where he informs Margaret that the ship is immovable and surrounded by ice. Walton reports sighting an enormous man-like creature being pulled by a dog sled, as he is looking out into the icy distanceRead MoreThe Mother Of The Novel Frankenstein By Mary Shelley1202 Words   |  5 Pages Mary Wollstonecraft Shelley, the mother of the novel Frankenstein, was born on August 30, 1797 in London, England, child of Mary Wollstonecraft and William Godwin. Wollstonecraft wrote about the struggle of women and promoted women’s rights, while Godwin wrote pieces that aimed toward achieving a philosophical goal. Mary Shelley was unfortunately only to really experience literary expertise through her father, for her mother died due to puerperal fever early within one month of giving birth toRead MoreMary Shelley Is The Author Of The Famed Novel Frankenstein.1495 Words   |  6 PagesMary Shelley is the author of the famed novel Frankenstein. The era in which Frankenstein was published happened to be one where religion was followed in more of a strict m anner than today’s society follows. The monster in the novel was viewed as an abomination not only in its existence, but even as an idea. Although the novel was released unanimously, it was critiqued mostly from a religious standpoint. Critiques gave reviews saying that it was unintellectual work that was not worth the time itRead MoreMary Shelley s Frankenstein As A Gothic Novel1042 Words   |  5 Pages Mary shelley uses Spooky castles, mystery, and suspense: these are all elements of a Gothic novel. Mary Shelley’s Frankenstein was written in the early 19th century, the novel certainly contains many components of a Gothic novel. Shelley uses various literary devices to support the element of a supernatural event, dreams, emotions, and metonymy of gloom, which classify Frankenstein as a Gothic novel. Immediately after Frankenstein’s supernatural creation, Victor’sRead More Novel/Movie Difference Mary Shelleys Frankenstein Essay512 Words   |  3 Pages In reading the book Mary Shelley’s Frankenstein, and watching the by the same title, I discovered several large differences. Primarily, the edited and modified parts were changed to make the movie more interesting. In the book, Marry Shelley described everything in great detail. She included details that may not pertain to novel’s storyline directly, but more to the timeframe of the novel. When a movie comes out made after a specific novel, the screenplay eliminates most of these minute differencesRead MoreIn the Novel Frankenstein, by Mary Shelley, Victor Frankenstein Is the True Monster, Not the Creature Himself.1944 Words   |  8 PagesIn the novel Frankenstein, by Mary Shelley, Victor Frankenstein is the true monster, not the creature himself. Victor Frankenstein grew up in Geneva. He had a strong interest in reading the works of the ancient and outdated alchemists, and was fascinated by science and the secret of life. One day he decided that he wanted to study further, so Victor actually created a person of his own out of old body parts and strange chemicals. When the creature came to life, he was a hideously ugly beastRead MoreMary Shelley: Her life influence in Frankenstein. Mary Shelleys life hardships show up subtley throughout her novel Frankenstein.1243 Words   |  5 PagesMary Wollstonecraft Shelley endured many hardships during her life. Some of these included her mother dieing during childbirth, her loathing stepmother, and later in life, the death of her beloved husband. Although she maintained a strong relationship with her father, it did not cover-up the absence of a strong maternal figure. Mary Shelley s novel Frankenstein, was influenced by the pain she encountered in her life. Mary Wollstonecraft Godwin was born on August 30, 1797 to the couple of Mary WollstonecraftRead MoreHow Does Mary Shelley Create a Sense of Dread and Horror Up to Chapter 5 in the Novel ‘Frankenstein’?6870 Words   |  28 PagesHow does Mary Shelley create a sense of dread and horror up to chapter 5 in the novel ‘Frankenstein’? Mary Shelley wrote the novel Frankenstein. The novel is also known as the modern Prometheus. Mary Shelley, her husband Percy and Lord Byron went to Lake Geneva. Lord Byron challenged the group to a ghost story. After that Mary Shelley had a dream which then made her start writing her ghost story. Her dream was of a boy which made a machine, a man, which showed signs of life. Mary then had theRead MoreHow Successfully Do Waltons Letters Introduce the Central Themes and Concerns of the Novel Frankenstein by Mary Shelley?1980 Words   |  8 Pagessuccessfully do Waltons letters introduce the central themes and concerns of the novel Frankenstein by Mary Shelley? Walton is a sailor looking for a paradise. He believes that it exists on the north pole, even though most people would strongly disagree with this hypothesis. There are many similarities between his character and that of Victor Frankenstein, helping introduce the central themes and concerns to the novel. Waltons letters to his sister are the frame of the story. Even the main partRead MoreMary Shelleys Frankenstein: A Gothic Novel1595 Words   |  7 Pages Mary Shelly’s Frankenstein is one of the greatest Gothic novels to come out during the Romantic Period. Frankenstein is a prime example of what a Gothic novel should present to its reader through the genre’s twisted themes. Even though it was written in the Romantic period, Mary Shelley still wrote Frankenstein to be a Gothic work of literature. Many characteristics of Gothic novel can be seen within this novel. Mary Shelley’s outstanding novel Frankenstein is a prime example of a Gothic novel

How to Stay Organized in College

You might have had grand plans about getting organized in college. And yet, despite your best intentions, your plans for organization seemed to slip through your fingers. So how can you stay organized for the long road ahead? Fortunately, although there are a zillion things to manage between your first day of classes and your last, staying organized in college is a lot easier than you might think. With a little advanced planning and the right skill set, staying organized can become more of your routine instead of just your ideal. Try Various Time Management Systems If you were wholly dedicated to making some fancy schmancy new calendaring app work for you this semester, but it ended up not working at all, dont be too hard on yourself. That means a particular system didnt work for you, not that youre bad at time management. Keep trying (and trying and trying) new time management systems until you find one that clicks. And if that means using a good, old-fashioned paper calendaring system, so be it. Having some calendar is the most important part of staying organized through the chaos that is college. Keep Your Dorm Room Clean When you lived at home, you had to keep your room relatively clean. But now that youre in college, you can keep your dorm room as messy as you want, right? Wrong! As silly as it sounds, a messy dorm room can represent a messy college life. Keeping your living space clean can help with everything from preventing you from losing your keys (again) to being able to mentally focus when you need to since you wont be visually distracted by all the junk on your desk. Additionally, keeping your space clean doesnt have to take a lot of time and will lead to all those little things that make you feel like youre in control of your own life: having clean clothes to choose from in the morning, knowing where that FAFSA form went, always having your cell phone charged. If keeping your dorm room clean seems like a waste of time, spend one-week tracking how much time you spend maintaining it clean and another week tracking how much time you spend looking for stuff or trying to recover from things youve lost (like that FAFSA form). You might surprise yourself. Stay on Top of Your Responsibilities When you are faced with anything that connects with your college life responsibilities — from a cell phone bill to an email from your mom about when youre coming home for Thanksgiving — make yourself do one of four things: Do it Schedule it Toss itFile it As an example, spending the next month arguing with your mom over when youll fly home will take ten times as much time as it will for you to just give her some dates when she brings it up. And if you arent sure yet, figure out a day by which you will be sure — and then put it into your calendaring system. Your mom will leave you alone, youll knock something off your to-do list, and you wont have to spend time telling yourself Oh shoot, I need to figure out Thanksgiving a million times a day between now and then. Spend Time Each Week Reorganizing Youre in college because youve got a great brain. So put it to use on all you have to do outside of the classroom! Just like a finely tuned athlete, your mind is learning, expanding, and strengthening each week; youre in school. Consequently, what organizing systems worked for you a month or two ago might not work any longer. Spend a few moments looking at what you got done, what youre doing, and what youll need to do over the next few weeks. While it may seem like a waste of time, those precious minutes can save you a lot of lost time — and a lot of disorganization — in the future. Plan Ahead to Stay Ahead Everyone knows that student who always says, Oh, I cant do something then, Ill be up all night cramming for my midterm. Really? Because that is just planning to be disorganized! Plan for everything you have to do. If you have a significant event youre planning, make sure your homework is done ahead of time so you can focus on your event when the time comes. If you know you have a major paper due, plan to work on it — and finish it — a few days in advance. Since its on your calendar and in your master plan, youll stay organized and on top of your tasks without even having to think about it. Take Care of Your Physical, Emotional, and Mental Health Being in college is hard — and not just academically. If youre not eating healthy, getting enough sleep, finding time to exercise, and overall treating yourself kindly, it will catch up with you sooner or later. And its impossible to get and stay organized if you dont have the physical, emotional, and mental energy to function. So give yourself a little TLC and remember that taking care of your health is an integral part of reaching your college goals.

Types of Business Ownership - 1074 Words

1. Sole Proprietorship Single proprietorship is the simplest form of organization in most of the countries in the world. Unlike other forms of entity, it is usually not governed by special laws. A proprietorship is a type of business entity which legally has no separate existence from its owner. Hence, the limitations of liability enjoyed by a corporation and limited liability partnerships do not apply to sole proprietors. All debts of the business are debts of the owner. The single proprietor has unlimited liability since creditors of his business may proceed not only against the assets and properties of his business but also after his own personal assets and properties. A sole proprietorship essentially refers to a natural person or†¦show more content†¦Joint ventures are created in the essence of serving their purposes. They can be composed of a corporation, partnership or an individual. 5 Main Forms of Business Ownership Sole Proprietorship- A sole proprietorship is owned by only one person. This is the most common form of business ownership. General Partnership- A business owned by two or more people. The partners share ownership and control of the business. Limited Partnership- A limited partnership consists of at least one general partner (controls the business) and at least one limited partner(investor). Forming a Corporation- A corporation is a business which is considered a separate entity from you; even having the legal rights of a person. There are two types of corporations; C Corporations and S Corporations. Limited Liability Company- The new â€Å"It† thing in the world of entrepreneurship. It’s popularity has been steadily growing in the past years. What attracts entrepreneurs to this business structure is that it provides the limited liability provided by corporations with out all the restrictions and taxes. Business activities may be divided into three kinds: 1. Industry 2. Commerce 3. Services This classification is based on the nature of principal activity performed by the business enterprise. 1. Industries involve the conversion of raw materials into finished products or goods and the application of labor upon raw materials so that greater usefulness becomesShow MoreRelatedTypes Of Business Ownership And Ownership Essay1327 Words   |  6 Pages Types of Business Ownership Name Institutional Affiliation â€Æ' Business Ownership Introduction Business ownership refers to having control over a business enterprise and exercising this power by dictating its operations, functioning, and management. Ownership can be acquired either through franchising or purchasing an existing business. There are three types of business ownership, namely sole proprietorship, corporation, and partnership. A single entrepreneur can own several businesses underRead MoreTypes of Business Ownership1072 Words   |  5 PagesThe sole proprietorship is the simplest form of business organization. A sole proprietorship is a business that is owned by an individual who is solely responsible for all aspects of the business. The owner is personally responsible for all debts of the business, even in excess of the amount invested. The business and its owner are thus considered the same entity. The advantages of a sole proprietorship include: a. Low start up costs, as legal and filing fees are at a minimum. However, manyRead MoreBusiness Types of Ownership993 Words   |  4 PagesBusiness Types of Ownership Before starting any venture it is very important to figure out how the organization is going to build its chain of command. Basically no business is made for short time and for this reason a very careful measurement should be done on ownership. Choosing the appropriate ownership in an organisation depends on nature of business, type of authority, delegation of work, span of organization, type of product, production and operation, legal procedure, financial matters andRead MoreTypes of Business Organisation and Ownership1626 Words   |  7 PagesType of business, purpose and ownership (P1) To run a business smoothly or effectively all business have aims or purpose, this could be survivor, to grow, to become a market leader. A business also aims to provide exception service or to create a reputation as the best on market. Types of business To understand how business works and what they set out to achieve, it’s necessary to have an understanding of the main types of business sectors which exists within a business organisation. There areRead MoreDifferent Types Of Business Ownership1277 Words   |  6 PagesTypes of Business Ownership: Everything You Need to Know Before you can determine how you want to structure your business, you#39;ll need to know what your options are. The below are your choices when it comes to running your business: sole proprietorship, partnership, limited partnership, limited liability company (LLC), corporation (for-profit), nonprofit corporation, and cooperative. It is important that you choose the right structure for your business as the type of structure you choose willRead MoreComparing Types Of Business Ownership1331 Words   |  6 Pages Comparing Types of Businesses Name: Sabrina Bhinder Date: September 10th, 2014 In the space below, explain each of the following terms and provide an example. Forms of business ownership (5K marks) 1. Sole proprietorship †¢ A business that is just owned by only one person, who receives all the profit for everything. Example of a sole proprietorship can be a hairdresser that buys a chair for their business and can get customers directly for them. 2. Partnership †¢ WhenRead MoreThe Types of Business Ownership Essay examples840 Words   |  4 PagesThe Types of Business Ownership This report is about the advantages and disadvantages of different types of business ownerships. Introduction I am going to write about the advantages and disadvantages of different business ownerships including: * Sole Trader * Partnership * Franchise I will include the definitions of some of the business ownerships. Main Body SOLE TRADER Sole trader, as the name suggests, is where anRead MoreInvestigation of the Types of Business Ownership Essay801 Words   |  4 PagesInvestigation of the Types of Business Ownership JCC Limited is a private limited company. Other forms of business ownership include: The sole trader. This is the most common form of private sector business. This type of business has one owner who runs the business and may employ any number of people to help. Advantages of being a sole trader include the lack of legal restrictions, the sole trader is able to set up their business relatively quickly. Also all profits Read MoreTypes Of Business, Purpose And Ownership Of Two Contrasting Business2226 Words   |  9 PagesP1:Describe the type of business, purpose and ownership of two contrasting business Coca cola Coca Cola is a soft fizzy drink sold in every store throughout the world. It is produced by The Coca Cola Company of Atlanta in Georgia, and is often called as Coke. Purpose:- The purpose of coca cola is to design develop and advertise soft drinks the customers can enjoy, and also make profit from selling of soft drinks. Ownership:-The history of coca cola begin In 1892, Candler set out toRead MoreTypes Of Business, Purpose And Ownership Of Two Contrasting Businesses Essay1227 Words   |  5 PagesTASK-1 Describe the type of business, purpose and ownership of two contrasting businesses. (P1). 1. A brief introduction to the two local businesses? For profit business kokuyo camlin limited (Kokuyo camlin limited) Source: https://www.google.co.in/search?q=kokuyo+camlin+logo Introduction: kokuyo camlin ltd formerly known as camlin ltd is an Indian stationery company based in Mumbai india kokuyo japan holds around 51% stake in kokuyo camlin camlin manufactures art materials market

A Poor Solution For America s Shortcoming - 1625 Words

A Poor Solution to America’s Shortcoming â€Å"My father was a factory worker, and we were really poor. But everything I earned peddling papers and working in stores, he made me put aside for education† (Abraham A. Ribicoff). Abraham Ribcoff grew up to be the 80th governor of Connecticut and later became JFK’s secretary of Health, Education, and Welfare. A major issue in today’s society is the debate over free community college tuition. Even though some say free community college tuition would be one step closer to saving Americas crumbling lower class, community college tuition should not be completely free. An education from a community college is already very affordable even for those who are from low-income families. On top of being†¦show more content†¦This is a major issue for the low-income demographic in America because many individuals from these families can t afford to go to college. However, this is not only an issue for the lower class. Later in his article, Carnevale states, Colle ge is not a blue collar vs. white collar issue. More and more blue-collar jobs demand post-secondary education and training....Americans need to understand that the good jobs that require only a high school education are gone and will not be coming back. In other words, Carnevale is saying that a basic secondary education is becoming the status quo for the low-income jobs and that a post-secondary education will soon be the status quo for the middle class jobs. High school is becoming the new elementary school and American needs to realize that before it is too late. However, this poses a problem from the evidence we have just seen. Many people from low income families cannot afford to pay college tuition, but they also cannot afford not to. A common answer to the dilemma of America’s education deficiency is to make college tuition free, more specifically community college tuition free. Friedman addresses this issue earlier in his book saying, Low education means low-paying jobs, plain and simple, and this is where more and more Americans are finding themselvesShow MoreRelatedAnalysis Of Barbara Ehrenreich s Nickel And Dimed 1246 Words   |  5 PagesLarge numbers of the nation s citizens live at or below the poverty threshold, which means each month is a struggle to pay the bills and provide the basics, including food, clothing, and shelter, not to mention access to health care and simple comforts. Unfortunately, today it seems the rich are getting richer and the poor are getting poorer. The gap between the economically secure and the poor is becoming so large and will only increase without an attempt for solutions. The hardships of living inRead MoreThe Rise Of The West1705 Words   |  7 PagesClemons Dr. Mbajekwe History-101 December 7th, 2016 *Used an online book. The Post-American World Did you realize that there are more than 25 drifts that changed America? In any case, there are three noteworthy movements that affected the world we live in today; the rise of the West, the rise of the United States of America, and the rise of the rest. The rise of the west was from the fifteenth century until the eighteenth century. It comprised of the Christian transformation, scientific revolutionRead MoreThe Education and Healthcare Gap1686 Words   |  7 Pages In the worlds of politics, sociology and economics, debates have raged concerning the relative equality or inequality in America. Over the past one hundred years, we have seen a sizable shift toward equality in the legal rights of minorities. However, this legal equality is undermined by a pervasive and broadening socioeconomic inequality, especially in regards to healthcare and education. These issues disproportionately affect minorities. This paper will first touch on two other typesRead MoreDe Tomaso Pantera The Value Priced Supercar From Ford958 Words   |  4 Pagesa 1970s De Tomaso Pantera Do you know the Italian word for panther? That s right, it s Pantera. And this is a great place to start. The De Tomaso Pantera that launched in 1971 provided an Americanized version of an Italian styled supercar. You didn t have to go to Maranello Italy to get one, because Ford made the car available at your local Lincoln Mercury dealer. With a sticker price of around $10,000 in 1971, it s curious that the automobile wasn t a complete success. Here we ll talkRead MoreFailing The Children Of Success1507 Words   |  7 Pagesyears of the twentieth century, America once boasted in an academic system that produced â€Å"exceptional† students at all levels of science, math, and literature but as of now, has begun to produce more and more gradually a below-standard quality of students; with high school graduates that have a below minimum grasp of mathematics and a reading level close to illiterate. Such issues have been brought to the forefront in modern day politics, with little meaningful solutions, leaving the concerned citizenRead MoreCritical Analysis : Moral Reasoning968 Words   |  4 Pagesestablished, those stakeholders who favor and those who oppose the policy in question, each of their argument s evidence and reasoning will be analyzed. The corresponding pages which follow will provide an understanding of each side through three developed sections: a critical analysis, moral reasoning, and a tentative soluti on. The critical analysis will thoroughly measure to what level an argument s authoritative, accuracy, reliability, precision, applicability, and etc. is able to represent their claimsRead MoreProgressivism : A Wide And Varied Movement Essay1332 Words   |  6 Pagesliberalization. The paper will present an overview of Progressivism as a wide and varied movement. It will also discuss the goals of movement and mention some of the prominent people who took part in it. At the end, the significance of Progressivism to America will also be highlighted. Progressivism expanded in American cities and confronted political mechanism full of monopolies and corrupt leaders. For the resolution of diversified problems existing at the local and state levels, progressivism focusedRead MoreWorld Trade Organization ( Wto )1577 Words   |  7 PagesWorld Trade Organization On January 1st, 1995 is when something genius was invented called The World Trade Organization s (WTO) which is the main worldwide universal association managing the tenets of exchange between countries. The World Trade Organization basically supplanted the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), which had been in power subsequent to 1948, a couple of years after the Second World War. Prior to when the WTO was made, an activity to begin something comparable knownRead MoreUnequal Distribution Of Wealth1477 Words   |  6 Pagesdistribution of wealth also makes the living conditions of the less fortunate undesirable, because the upper class is usually concerned about gaining and maintaining their own wealth first and concerned about others second. It is difficult for the poor to rise above the poverty level, because they are dependent upon what the upper class deems is a fair wage for producing the goods that they make. Governments implement laws to help with the unequal distri bution of wealth, but such laws usually simplyRead MoreEnron, An American Energy Company1587 Words   |  7 PagesEnron Leadership One of the best examples recently seen relating to bad leadership is what took place within Enron. Throughout the late ‘90’s, Enron, an American energy company, was considered one of the country s most innovative companies; while the company continued to build power plants and operate gas lines, it became better known for its unique trading businesses (npr.org, 2014). It can be described as the ideal company for the dotcom-driven stock market boom of the 90s; Enron threw itself

Time Series Models Free Essays

string(161) " of this model is that only two historical pieces of information need to be carried: the mean itself and the number of observations on which the mean was based\." TIME SERIES MODELS Time series analysis provides tools for selecting a model that can be used to forecast of future events. Time series models are based on the assumption that all information needed to generate a forecast is contained in the time series of data. The forecaster looks for patterns in the data and tries to obtain a forecast by projecting that pattern into the future. We will write a custom essay sample on Time Series Models or any similar topic only for you Order Now A forecasting method is a (numerical) procedure for generating a forecast. When such methods are not based upon an underlying statistical model, they are termed heuristic. A statistical (forecasting) model is a statistical description of the data generating process from which a forecasting method may be derived. Forecasts are made by using a forecast function that is derived from the model. WHAT IS A TIME SERIES? A time series is a sequence of observations over time. A  time series  is a sequence of  data points, measured typically at successive time instants spaced at uniform time intervals. A time series is a sequence of observations of a random variable. Hence, it is a stochastic process. Examples include the monthly demand for a product, the annual freshman enrollment in a department of a university, and the daily volume of flows in a river. Forecasting time series data is important component of operations research because these data often provide the foundation for decision models. An inventory model requires estimates of future demands, a course scheduling and staffing model for a university requires estimates of future student inflow, and a model for providing warnings to the population in a river basin requires estimates of river flows for the immediate future. * TWO MAIN GOALS: There are two main goals of time series analysis: (a) identifying the nature of the phenomenon represented by the sequence of observations, and (b) forecasting (predicting future values of the time series variable). Both of these goals require that the pattern of observed time series data is identified and more or less formally described. Once the pattern is established, we can interpret and integrate it with other data (e. g. , seasonal commodity prices). Regardless of the depth of our understanding and the validity of our interpretation (theory) of the phenomenon, we can extrapolate the identified pattern to predict future events. Several methods are described in this chapter, along with their strengths and weaknesses. Although most are simple in concept, the computations required to estimate parameters and perform the analysis are tedious enough that computer implementation is essential. The easiest way to identify patterns is to plot the data and examine the resulting graphs. If we did that, what could we observe? There are four basic patters, which are shown in Figure 1. Any of these patterns, or a combination of them, can be present in a time series of data: 1. Level or horizontal This pattern exists when data values fluctuate around a constant mean. This is the simplest pattern and easiest to predict. A  horizontal  pattern is observed when the values of the time series fluctuate around a constant mean. Such time series is also called  stationery. In Retail data, stationery time series can be found easily since there are products which sales roughly the same amount of items every period. In the stock market however, it’s difficult (if not impossible) to find horizontal patterns. Most of the time series there are non-stationery. Time series with horizontal patterns are very easy to forecast. 2. Trend When data exhibit an increasing or decreasing pattern over time, we say that they exhibit a trend. The trend can be upward or upward. The  trend  pattern is straightforward. It consists of a long-term increase or decrease of the values of the time series. Trend patterns are easy to forecast and are very profitable when found by stock traders. 3. Seasonality Any pattern that regularly repeats itself and is of a constant length is a seasonal pattern is. Such seasonality exists when the variable ewe are trying to forecast is influenced by seasonal factors such as the quarter or month of the year or day of the week. A time series with  seasonal  patterns are more difficult to forecast but not too difficult. The values of these time series are influenced by seasonal factors, such as the turkey in Christmas period. Also, ice cream sales are affected by seasonality. People buy more ice creams during the summer. Forecasting algorithms which can deal with the seasonality can be used for forecasting such time series. Holt-Winters’ method is one such algorithm. 4. Cycles Cyclical  patterns are usually confused with the seasonal patterns. While seasonal patterns are influenced by seasonal factors, cyclical patterns do not necessarily have a fixed period. A seasonal pattern can be cyclical, but a cyclical is not necessarily seasonal. Cyclical patterns are the most difficult to forecast. Most forecasting tools can deal with seasonality, trend and horizontal time series but very few can offer acceptable forecasts to cyclical patterns unless there is some sort of indication as to how the cycle evolves. Random Variation is unexplained variation that cannot be predicted. The more random variation a data set has, the harder it is to forecast accurately. In practice, forecasts derived by these methods are likely to be modified by the analyst upon considering information not available from the historical data. We should understand that to obtain a good forecast the forecasting model should be matched to the patterns in the available data. TIME SERIES METHODS The Naive Method Among the time-series models, the simplest is the naive forecast. A naive forecast simply uses the actual demand for the past period as the forecasted demand for the next period. This, of course, makes the assumption that the past will repeat. An example of naive forecasting is presented in Table 1. Table 1 Naive Forecasting Period| Actual Demand (000’s)| Forecast (000’s)| January| 45| | February| 60| 45| March| 72| 60| April| 58| 72| May| 40| 58| June| | 40| This model is only good for a level data pattern. One of the advantages of this model is that only two historical pieces of information need to be carried: the mean itself and the number of observations on which the mean was based. You read "Time Series Models" in category "Essay examples" Averaging Method Another simple technique is the use of averaging. To make a forecast using averaging, one simply takes the average of some number of periods of past data by summing each period and dividing the result by the number of periods. This technique has been found to be very effective for short-range forecasting. Variations of averaging include the moving average, the weighted average, and the weighted moving average. A moving average takes a predetermined number of periods, sums their actual demand, and divides by the number of periods to reach a forecast. For each subsequent period, the oldest period of data drops off and the latest period is added. Assuming a three-month moving average and using the data from Table 1, one would simply add 45 (January), 60 (February), and 72 (March) and divide by three to arrive at a forecast for April: 45 + 60 + 72 = 177 ? 3 = 59 To arrive at a forecast for May, one would drop January’s demand from the equation and add the demand from April. Table 2 presents an example of a three-month moving average forecast. Table 2 Three Month Moving Average Forecast Period| Actual Demand (000’s)| Forecast (000’s)| January| 45| | February| 60| | March| 72| | April| 58| 59| May| 40| 63| June| | 57| A weighted average applies a predetermined weight to each month of past data, sums the past data from each period, and divides by the total of the weights. If the forecaster adjusts the weights so that their sum is equal to 1, then the weights are multiplied by the actual demand of each applicable period. The results are then summed to achieve a weighted forecast. Generally, the more recent the data the higher the weight, and the older the data the smaller the weight. Using the demand example, a weighted average using weights of . 4, . 3, . , and . 1 would yield the forecast for June as:   60(. 1) + 72(. 2) + 58(. 3) + 40(. 4) = 53. 8 Forecasters may also use a combination of the weighted average and moving average forecasts. A weighted moving average forecast assigns weights to a predetermined number of periods of actual data and computes the forecast the same way as described above. As with all moving forecasts, as each new period is added, the data from the oldest pe riod is discarded. Table 3 shows a three-month weighted moving average forecast utilizing the weights . 5, . 3, and . 2. Table 3 Three–Month Weighted Moving Average Forecast Period| Actual Demand (000’s)| Forecast (000’s)| January| 45| | February| 60| | March| 72| | April| 58| 55| May| 40| 63| June| | 61| | | | Exponential Smoothing Exponential smoothing takes the previous period’s forecast and adjusts it by a predetermined smoothing constant, ? (called alpha; the value for alpha is less than one) multiplied by the difference in the previous forecast and the demand that actually occurred during the previously forecasted period (called forecast error). To make a forecast for the next time period, you eed three pieces of information: 1. The current period’s forecast 2. The current period’s actual value 3. The value of a smoothing coefficient, alpha, which varies between 0 and 1. Exponential smoothing is expressed formulaically as such: New forecast = previous forecast + alpha (actual demand ? previous forecast) A forecast for February is computed as such: New forecast (F ebruary) = 50 + . 7(45 ? 50) = 41. 5 Next, the forecast for March: New forecast (March) = 41. 5 + . 7(60 ? 41. 5) = 54. 45 This process continues until the forecaster reaches the desired period. In Table 4 this would be for the month of June, since the actual demand for June is not known. Table 4 Period| Actual Demand (000’s)| Forecast (000’s)| January| 45| 50| February| 60| 41. 5| March| 72| 54. 45| April| 58| 66. 74| May| 40| 60. 62| June| | 46. 19| Forecasting Trend There are many ways to forecast trend patterns in data. Most of the models used for forecasting trend are the same models used to forecast the level patterns, with an additional feature added to compensate for the lagging that would otherwise occur. Trend-Adjusted Exponential Smoothing When a trend exists, the forecasting technique must consider the trend as well as the series average ignoring the trend will cause the forecast to always be below (with an increasing trend) or above (with a decreasing trend) actual demand Double exponential smoothing smooths (averages) both the series average and the trend forecast for period t+1: Ft+1  = At  + Tt average: At  =  aDt  + (1 –  a) (At-1  + Tt-1) =  aDt  + (1 –  a) Ft average trend: Tt  =  B  CTt  + (1 –  B) Tt-1 current trend: CTt  = At  Ã¢â‚¬â€œ At-1 forecast for p periods into the future: Ft+p  = At  + p Tt here: At  = exponentially smoothed average of the series in period t Tt  = exponentially smoothed average of the trend in period t CTt  = current estimate of the trend in period t a  = smoothing parameter between 0 and 1 for smoothing the averages B  = smoothing parameter between 0 and 1 for smoothing the trend Linear Trend Line Linear trend line is a time series technique that computes a forecast with trend by drawing a straight line through a set of data. The forecasting equation for the linear trend model is: Y= a + bX where t is the time index. The parameters alpha and beta (the â€Å"intercept† and â€Å"slope† of the trend line) are usually estimated via a simple regression in which Y is the dependent variable and the time index t is the independent variable. Forecasting Seasonality Recall that any regularly repeating pattern is a seasonal pattern. We are all familiar with quarterly and monthly seasonal patterns. For example, seasonality includes sales of Christmas tree before Christmas, sales of jackets, hotel registrations and sales of greeting cards. The procedure for computing seasonality consists of the following steps: 1. Calculate the average demand per season . Calculate a seasonal index for each season of each year: 3. Average the indexes by season 4. Forecast demand for the next year divide by the number of seasons 5. Multiply next year’s average seasonal demand by each average seasonal index. Selecting a Forecasting Method The selection of a forecasting method is a difficult task that must be base in part on knowledge concerning the quantity being forecast. With forecasting procedures, we are generally trying to recognize a change in the underlying process of a time series while remaining insensitive to variations caused by purely random effects. The goal of planning is to respond to fundamental changes, not to spurious effect. Bibliography: Box, G. E. P and G. M. Jenkins and G. D. Reinsel, Time Series Analysis, Forecasting, and Control, Third Edition, Prentice Hall, Englewood Cliffs, NJ, 1993. Brockwell, Peter J. and Davis, Richard A. (2002). Introduction to Time Series and Forecasting, 2nd. ed. , Springer-Verlang. Chatfield, C. , The Analysis of Time Series: An Introduction, Fifth Edition, Chapman Hall, Boca Raton, FL, 1996. Fuller, W. A. , Introduction to Statistical Time Series, Second Edition, John Wiley Sons, New York, 1996. (Electronic Version): StatSoft, Inc. 2012). Electronic Statistics Textbook. Tulsa, OK: StatSoft. WEB: http://www. statsoft. com/textbook/. (Printed Version): Hill, T. Lewicki, P. (2007). STATISTICS: Methods and Applications. StatSoft, Tulsa, OK. (Electronic Version): A First Course on Time Series Analysis  Ã¢â‚¬â€œ an open source book on time series analysis with  SAS WEB: http://www. statisti k-mathematik. uni-wuerzburg. de/wissenschaftforschung/time_series/ (Electronic Version): Forecasting – levels, examples, manager, definition, model, type, company   WEB:http://www. referenceforbusiness. com/management/Ex-Gov/Forecasting. html#b#ixzz28ty2DePJ How to cite Time Series Models, Essay examples

Motivation And Organizational Behavior Solution on A Employee

Question: Understand the key concepts, theories and practices which underpin the practice of management and the role of the manager in contemporary business organisations. Comprehend the complexity of management roles and functions and the diversity of management focus within modern organisations . Evaluate, describe and discuss the key concepts, approaches and skills which are necessary for the modern manager in contemporary organisations and cultures. Answer: Brief and Identify Problems in Case and How to Manage it in Kelloggs Management Structure The manager and business leaders will agree on one thing that it is a continuous challenge to keep the workers productive and motivated at workplace. The reality being what drives an individual can be different to another so it is important to understand each employee. This is in link with human development stages as each individual has different outlook of his career and on motivation (Dhaliwal, 2016). An employee spends considerable amount of time at workplace so rewarding and motivating them right is important. Each worker needs has to be satisfied by understanding their need by knowing their behavior. In some organization it is found out that employees needs are not understood that impacts the performance and productivity. They are not encouraged to take different roles by moving ahead in professional career. This is in link to the first issue motivation as this is an important component that drives the change in attitude in the way people behave. In Kelloggs management structure employees are encouraged to speak positive words for others by working on the strengths. The use of scientific management adapted by Frederick Taylor states that monetary reward is crucial. This is best for narrow job confines working in align with production line as in Kelloggs. Many individuals are still motivated by cash rewards as for them the prime factor is pay (Businesscasestudies, 2014). Employees in Kelloggs are motivated by cash alternatives by having the option of selling and buying their holiday plans. Another is Maslow theory that establishes upon the basis of five levels that needs to be satisfied in systematic order. The five stages are: Psychological Needs The workers are provided with competitive salaries for fulfilling the basic needs and Kelloggs Cornflakes flexible benefits programme that involves discount life assurance schemes, childcare vouchers, company cares etc. Safety Needs The employers have formulated health and safety rules adhered by employees by working flexible working patterns like career breaks, part-time for maintain work-life balance. Social Needs Kelloggs has a group that operates weekly by providing information on products and sales data that strengthens the team. They work according to K values by being positive and rewarding the staff for their achievement. Self-actualization Needs The employees working in Kelloggs is taking challenging opportunity by handling projects and taking the ownership solely. The second issue between management and employees is communication that is sometimes broken due to messages getting distort. The organization uses two way communications by empowering the workforce at the same time. For instance it has its coffee bar in the lobby area that accommodates around 200 people. The WK Kellogg Values Award programme reward employees and recognizes the employees talent as per their contribution to work (Businesscasestudies, 2014). This is done in order to improve the efficiency, output and quality of business provided to the customers. The motivation and communication factor is an important source to engage the employees by generating information. The management structure of Kelloggs is effective by working on the effectiveness for improving the productivity of employees Discuss and Identify Kelloggs Approach by Contributing to its Success Kelloggs approach to motivation is based upon certain motivating factors by making it the best workplace to work. This is done in accordance with employer choice as the business is delivering consistent results by taking the initiative to provide the following: Paternity and maternity leave, off time for dependents and career breaks Access to local facilities at subsidized rates and on site gyms Working in flexibility through undertaking home working, flextime and part time working Similarly, Kellogg is offering Fit for Life Programme that provides access to fitness and health programs and health check up via healthcare specialist. Secondly, the workplace has summer hours programme i.e. May to September that is adjusting the professional and personal life. For example Clarie Duckworth is working in consumer insight team and is taking part in dancing competition so this promotes the opportunity for work life balance. This motivation is effective as different individuals as different aspirations by taking their responsibility. For instance sales team meets each Friday by sharing the stories and getting inspired (Businesscasestudies, 2014). With this the employees are awarded by having both monetary and non-monetary benefits. Values are shaping, supporting the vision and providing reflection to company values by working on the philosophy and principles. The organization should have positive environment by working on the strengths of the workforce by incorporating listening as a crucial component. This makes the workforce engaged as all individuals are accepting the values of each other in the organization. According to Taylor theory it develops people so ultimately, the workplace is also developed as the employees are happy. In Maslow theory the management fulfills the five levels of needs for workforce by following the hierarchical order impacting the organizational productivity and performance (Taormina and Gao, 2013). In this theory the example of Laura Bryant is feasible as she joined as field sales team and after two years she was promoted. Her manager helped her that promoted her to assistant brand manager so this case implements Maslow by working on the ladder of her career ambitions. Thus, the use of communication also helped in passing the message without any distortion as the feedback from the employees is generated. This feedback is used to generate ideas that an employee can raise and it will be raised in the monthly meetings. The two ways communication approach is positive for the employees and management as this will affect by working in align with the organizational goals (Shajahan and Shajahan, 2004). Identify Content Theory and its Impact on Employee Performance The content theory incorporated in Kelloggs is of varied nature and it is used to motivate the employees by engaging them. Employee performance is sharing the work among workforce for achieving the goals by aligning it with organizational objectives. The various theories used for affecting employee performance are: Taylor Theory Taylor established scientific management theory that emphasis on improving the productivity of workers. In this the tasks are divided through optimization by training the workers to perform the work in a sequence motion. At the same time this theory does not help in developing individuals as it has limitation of taking the initiative of ownership (Tracy, 2014). This is done with the help of division of labour as in Kelloggs the production process is large. Maslow Theory According to Maslow a human being basic needs to have to be fulfilled for being happy and motivated. Every individual has some desire that needs to be fulfilling for achieving certain needs and that would affect the performance. The five stages are psychological, safety, social and self-actualization needs. Psychological is linked with salary, safety is associated with working in healthy and safe environment, social is belonging needs by having trust and strengthening the team and self-actualization is taking challenging opportunities (Taormina and Gao, 2013). Elton Mayo Mayo contributed towards management with human relations movement by establishing the fact that performance is depending upon content of job and social issues. This theory is about understanding the attitude of the individuals in groups with communication, management involvement and team working. When employees are being cared about their interest and views they tend to be more productive. He investigated number of methods for improving the productivity for instance lighting condition. Two-Factor Theory This theory was propounded by Fredrick Herzberg by arguing that certain factors affect work performance. The two factors stated above motivate the employees by improving performance by making him work harder. This empower the employees by delegating the work in a challenging and taking their own decision over the work life (Sachau, 2007). In Kelloggs the business would grow by motivating the employees with the use of above theories and providing them safe working conditions. The link of motivation theories has positive impact on employee performance in Kelloggs. Both the employee and management are responsible for the performance and increasing growth of workplace. They both have to work together in combination by achieving the Kelloggs goals and objectives. Application of Content Theory in Kelloggs Workforce and Critique of Kelloggs Motivating Employees The theory applied for Kellogg workforce is different as per the employee charactertics as in case of Taylor the focus on monetary reward. This reward is only applicable for employees who want cash and do not want non-monetary benefits. The salary would be paid according to amount of work performed by the individual in organization or producing the units in number known as piece work (Tracy, 2014). The output can be increased by only payment so this might be danger for organizations who want to focus on quality business. Secondly is Herzberg theory as the two factor theory is having dissatisfiers and satisfiers. The dissatisfiers are hygiene factors that are associated with the workplace like autocratic working style, environment, happy or unhappy employee. On the other hand, motivators i.e. satisfiers that provides job satisfaction by working on the roles and responsibility. This is linked with promotion, performance, effort recognition, unhappy and job. Maslow hierarchy of needs is followed for satisfying the needs by acting as motivators for working in order needs. When one level of need is fulfilled the higher order of needs are fulfilled by motivating workforce (Banks, 2005). This manner the theories ate helping in improving the productivity and success of employees in Kelloggs. The workforce is satisfied with the approach taken as motivation and encouragement is an essential part. When employees enjoy high autonomy, they receive feedback about the performance for the piece of work by utilizing the skill and experience for performing well. The application of the above mentioned theories will make the workforce engage and more productive. The motivation technique used by Kelloggs is feasible for the employees as it may be non-monetary and monetary as per the need. The various modes of motivation factor used by the organization are providing job satisfaction. They are able to pursue their professional and personal goals by having the right balance. Kelloggs being an employer is encouraging and motivating its employees from their side and at the same time employees also need to contribute equally on their part. The use of different modes of motivation for employees is work flexibility, pursuing one personal goals and being fit (Businesscasestudies, 2014). This will make the individual healthy as they are being cared by healthcare specialist for any health related problems. Another is idea generation through Snap, Crackle and Save initiative where ideas are generated that motivates by making the staff committed to their work. Here an employee suggested cardboard can be used in packaging for saving cost. It is used in man ufacturing plant that saves around 250,000 yearly. References Banks, L. (2005). Motivation in the workplace. 3rd ed. West Des Moines, Iowa: American Media Pub. Businesscasestudies.co.uk. (2014). Building a better workplace through motivation - Kellogg's | Kellogg's case studies, videos, social media and information | Business Case Studies. [online] Available at: https://businesscasestudies.co.uk/kelloggs/building-a-better-workplace-through-motivation/#axzz4H0mr6hci [Accessed 11 Aug. 2016]. Dhaliwal, A. (2016). Motivation and its impact on organization. International Journal of scientific research and management. Kontoghiorghes, C. (2008). A Holistic Approach Toward Motivation to Learn in the Workplace. Performance Improvement Quarterly, 14(4), pp.45-59. Sachau, D. (2007). Resurrecting the Motivation-Hygiene Theory: Herzberg and the Positive Psychology Movement. Human Resource Development Review, 6(4), pp.377-393. Shajahan, S. and Shajahan, L. (2004). Organization behaviour. New Delhi: New Age International. Tracy, B. (2013). Motivation. New York: AMACOM, American Management Association. Tracy, B. (2014). Management. New York: AMACOM. Yaney, J. (2008). Motivation and the Organization. Performance Improvement Quarterly, 1(1), pp.46-57.